Real Geniuses

We're using the laser focus only possible using synthesized excited bromide in an argon matrix to pull out of our funk.   Acknowledging that we have talked ourselves out of a lot of winners for reasons that do not make much sense, we are sticking to the basics, and trusting what our eyes tell us.  With that in mind, we took Indy at Ten.  The logic was Luck would lead his team to a convincing win against a banged up division rival.  He did, and covered.  Unfortunately, he covered with too much time on the clock, and his horrible coaching staff inserted the prevent D that allowed for the only monocle wearing quarterback in the NFL to get a late touchdown that resulted in a push.  While this was disappointing, given how poorly we've done over the last couple of weeks, a push is progress.  (Ugh.  We've been lowered to the expectations of the government.)  Also, these book makers are ridiculously good.  Seeing the flow of that game, and how it ended at a 3 points spread, it is nothing short of magic.

So, what's up for the weekend?

With the college season entering its final stretch and the NFL's second half under way, we are left with trust that teams will continue to be who we think they are.  This means taking huge lines for Florida State and Alabama.  It also means that we have to trust that Vegas hates Michigan State for reasons we don't quite understand.

We are taking a tease with South Carolina (-7), Alabama (-17.5) and Michigan State (+.5)  We are also taking FSU-East on a straight ticket to cover (-37.5).

At the NFL level, we are looking at NYG (-4.5) at home over the Packers' third string quarterback without Randall Cobb.  We also like Detroit (-3) at Pittsburgh.  Depending how we do on the college games, we'll decide how to move allocate bets on the NFL games.  Also in play is San Diego at Miami.

I know, I know.  I just wrote about staying away, but it's hard to not bet against a team that is now without one side of its already shaky offense line.  You should also know I'm that guy who keeps eating because things taste good even though I am full. I do not possess many healthy habits, as surprising as that may seem for someone who writes a blog about gambling to raise money for golf.  Get your popcorn ready, it's time for another weekend of excitement

Whoever Smelt It, Dealt It

Whoa, it's smelly in here!!! (looking around for dog to blame....)

So we've run into two straight weeks of losing tickets.  This is particularly disappointing because we've picked winners, but have also included a loser each time.  I guess it's true what they say about one bad apple spoiling the bunch.  In our defense, I don't think many people saw the Colts digging a 28-0 hole to the Rams. The Panthers win was not as shocking, which is why we kept SF off the winner's ticket.  On the college side, we whiffed on Oregon and LSU.  Baylor and Missouri are holding serve nicely.

Important Thing We Learned:

Alabama is for real.  Granted LSU had some bad fumbles and bad coaching (take the points Les!!!!), but a lot of that was due to the dominance of Alabama. Also, the FSUs are both getting it done.  FSU-East is ridiculous. (Ed. Note: as of the writing of this, reports have just surfaced that J. Winston might have been overly handsy and/or genitally with the ladies.)  FSU-West is taking care of business.

Other Stuff We Learned:

Vandy might be legit.  Going on the road at Florida (even a banged up FLA) and winning is big.  Auburn likely is legit.  We like them this weekend.  Baylor is the Oregon of the Midwest, and luckily for them there is no Stanford in the Big-12-2.  Michigan State is our favorite to win the Big 10+2.

The NFL is getting tougher to gamble on, but a few thing look good for a while.  Betting against the Packers as long as Rodgers is out.  This includes the NYG, whose schedule is set for yet another a late season rally to win the NFC East (currently at +500).  Carolina is good, or at least good enough.  Stay away from all teams in Florida - they cannot decide if they are awful, bad, or okay.  Unbelievably, the Browns at 11-2 to win the AFC North is not an awful bet.  (Ed. Note: I'm as stunned as you are.)

So, here's what we're looking at this week:

Buffalo at Toledo.  Ugh.  We decided to keep riding the Buffaloes.  This was a bad idea.

As much as we should be gun shy of the Colts, the Titans without Locker are gettable, and the Colts are a team that should rally from getting smoked in a positive way.  South Carolina should roll on Florida and its third string QB.  Unless he's in cuffs, FSU-East should cover 39 (39!!!!) at home over Syracuse.  Auburn at home also looks good against Georgia.  We also like Michigan State at Nebraska.

The remainder of the NFL slate looks rough.  The only standouts are NYG hosting the Packers, and the Eagles at home over the Redskins.  A game that should be a blowout but might be an upset is MIN at SEA. Aren't the Vikings similar to the Buccaneers but with slightly better players at every position? We would probably take Carolina over the Patriots if New England wasn't coming off a bye.

Revenge Of The Nerds

We were thiiiiiiiiiis close to nailing a Thursday Night Super Ticket of MIN, BAY and ORE.  Unfortunately, it turns out the the football players at Stanford are not only big, strong,  and pretty quick, but they might also be kinda smart.  Smart enough to knock off Oregon for the second year in a row.  I believe Clay Davis, lion of the Maryland State legislature, said it best - Sheeeeeiiiiiiiiit.  Anyways, on the bright side we took our medicine early and have a weekend full of clean tickets ahead of us.

We also are patronizing Bill Hill enough that we got a $10 thank you credit, which we promptly rolled into a bet that paid out $19.  I guess the old commercials were right, membership DOES have its privileges.  Anyways, that was a nice way to get back some of our Thursday losses.

So what looks good for the weekend?  There is some debate to be had but we are set on the following:

College Teaser

Missouri (-7.5) at Kentucky.
Minnesota (+4.5) hosting Penn State
LSU (+19) at Bama.

Missouri has shown no reason to back off them and we won't until further notice.  Minnesota has turned a corner since it's coach's health issues have been resolved, and Penn State has been uneven this year.  Speaking of uneven, LSU is the picture of uneven.  They are also the picture of a team that played Bama tougher than anyone not named Johnny Football, and beaten them more.  Ignoring history in the Stanford game came back to haunt us.  We won't do it twice.

Upset Special Ticket

We are taking the following dogs on the money line:

PHI (+105) at GB.
BUF (+135) at PIT
HOU (+125) at ARI
DAL (+230) at NO

First the low hanging fruit - Green Bay is in trouble with Seneca Wallace - he was cut by the Browns. Moving on, we have been touting the Bills and not seeing anything of note from the Steelers.  Plus, EJ Manuel is allegedly returning, so that is comforting.  Same with the Texans and Case Keenum.  This looks like a good team - the offense is fun and the defense seems rejuvenated.  Yes, they are on the road, but Carson Palmer throws lots of bad interceptions and takes sacks.  That is not a good combo against a Texans team that might be excited.  We are also assuming no more of their coaches will suffer mid-game strokes. Fans and bettors, maybe.  Finally, we're in on the Romocoaster again. This is not easy.

On a sadder note, in our initial emails about this ticket I did consider adding MIN.  That didn't happen.

The Winner's Ticket is shaping up to include the following:

Missouri, Johnny Football, San Francisco, UNC, Fresno State, Seattle, or Indy.

The NFL Teaser has the following candidates:

SF, NYG, DEN, HOU, BUF, MIA, SEA, DET.

We'll have to kick around some configuration since we've been burned recently with doubling up teams and losing multiple tickets.  I'm also nervous about DEN without John Fox.  Cam Newton might be good again, and the Seahawks are hell bent on being the 2010 SF Giants of football.

Games We Like But Don't Have The Stones To Bet

Vandy (+310) at FLA
NEB (+189) at Michigan - Seriously?
LSU (+345) at Bama.  Covered above.  We could wake up on Sunday where Jameis Winston sits in his rightful place on top of College Football.

The MAC Is Playing With My Emotions

So the MAC, home to one of our adopted favorite teams - Buffalo, has decided to put some of its "high profile games" on weekdays other than Thursday to get more viewers.  I can appreciate the desire for more viewers, but sneaking games in on a Tuesday??  When I can't bet on them??  That is playing with my emotions!  Well, it wouldn't be, except Scott is still in Not-Nevada, so we cannot place bets, which we totally would on Buffalo (-4.5) hosting Ohio.  

It also means that our college tease and winner's ticket will be without a favorite.  Hopefully, this will not make me sad come next Monday.

O Brother, Where Art Thou?

We lost the Ryan Belly Bowl by taking the Ryan that still has his belly and got smoked on our NFL Teaser ticket.  Thanks to a blocked PAT and the RomoCoaster doing his thing, we crawled away from the Dallas game with a push.  That left the Saints, who have looked really good against the Jets, who have looked really bad or really lucky.  Yesterday, they displayed their new look - not shabby, while New Orleans has us thinking of laying odds on Carolina to win the NFC South (currently +300).

While other important people might have fudged about your insurance, we are keep true to our platform. The plan is simple - College Tease; NFL Tease; Winner's ticket.  Don't chase losses.  Don't try and leverage wins.  The net effect?  You have read all of the blog to know what's in it.  Which is a good thing, because we would have probably taken Green Bay.  So, because we are disciplined, we avoided making our small loss a bigger one.

Important Thing(s) We Learned This Week - Houston is going to be fun for the rest of the season.  A healthy New England might still be good.  The Giants might be alive.

Other Things We Learned This Week - Betting against Atlanta is a pretty good bet.  Carolina might also be good, but we're not sure how good.  KC's defense will take out bad teams.  KC's offense is tough to watch. Dallas is not a good team to gamble on.  Minnesota is not as bad as their record.  We have no idea what to make of Philly, or Oakland for that matter.  Pittsburgh continues to be "Meh?"  We're betting against Green Bay as long as Seneca Wallace lines up under center.

Putting aside the NFL, our college horses continue to look good.  FSU (east) continued to look like the best team in college.  FSU (west) held serve, but we're probably done betting on them.  Mizzou is what we thought they were, and so is South Carolina.  Michigan State is continuing to look great heading into the Big 10+2 championship game.  Oklahoma State is also looking very good.

So what looks good early?  The Vikings (+2.5) at home against the Redskins.  (yeah, you read that right media, REDSKINS!)   Not because the Skins are that bad, but I think Minnesota is just better. Oregon at Stanford (-10).  I'd still be in at (-40).  Minnesota (-2.5) hosting Penn State. Auburn (-7) at Tennessee. Speaking of Tennessee, we like the Titans at Jacksonville (-13.5).  We also like the Giants (-7) hosting the Raiders.  San Francisco (-6.5) hosting the Panthers.  FYI - SF has won its last 5 games by an average margin of 22.5.  Good luck picking Miami (-3) at Tampa Bay.  Both locker rooms appear to be a shit-show, but Miami is at least a winning locker room that doesn't hate its coach.  Seriously, Florida.  What's your deal?

We are just staying away from Seattle, Denver (because of San Diego and the J. Fox issues), and Houston - we like the Keenum era, but are not stoked about the coach passing out on the side line era.  We are taking our advise on the Bengals.  We are also staying away from FSU (east) only because of the (-35) line.  Big win this weekend, and no question they should dominate Wake Forrest, but we could also see a 21 point win.

Safety Dance? Safety Dance.

Talk about a trick or treat...We went from covering the first leg to two bets with 27 seconds to go, to overtime with a chance.  We ended with a loss by a safety.  A FUCKING SAFETY in overtime.  Andy Dalton is a cold-ass-ginger heart breaker.  We've been beaten lots of ways, but this is a first.  I have never been a quarterback, but I have imagined myself as one on many runs, workouts, and flag football sidelines, and based on that experience, I know I would have the field awareness to not take a safety in overtime.  This is also why I should pay more attention to things I write such as:

"Has there been a 6-2 team that you trust less than Cincy?"

But then I "researched" them and decided they were a good pick for the weekend.  Ugh.  At some point, I'll know what you know - that we're really smart.  Until then, we'll keep getting in our own way.

On to the week's tickets:

College Teaser

Ohio State (-25) at Purdue; Florida State (-15.5) hosting Miami; and Fresno State (-14) hosting Nevada

We've been high on Florida State all season and, aside from the first half against Boston College, they have not disappointed.  Miami has been suspect (a kind assessment) this season.  Florida State also knows that Oregon jumped them in the BCS standings, so laying the wood on a top-10 opponent matters. For the same reason, Ohio State knows it has to hang as many points on Purdue as it can.  Not only does it have to win out, it needs help.  If Urban Meyer is ruthless enough to give Penn State its worst beat down in more than 100 years, I doubt he'll be concerned about putting 70 on some nerds from Indiana.  Finally, there is Fresno State.  They are undefeated and have shot to get stomped by a big program in a BCS game. Nevada is allegedly horrible, so we're taking Fresno since half of the NCAA is on a bye this week.

NFL Teaser

CIN (3.5) at MIA; NO (.5) at NJY and DAL(-4) hosting MIN

The thought was Cincy would at least win the game at Miami.  That did not happen, but at least they covered the first leg of this parlay.  New Orleans is back to almost full strength and the Jets are what they are.  As much as the New England win should deter us, the Pats are not good, and the Saints should roll in this game. It is also a Ryan bowl of sorts, and we're taking Sean Payton to win that.  Finally there is Dallas, who is as talented as any team in the league against Minnesota who is not.  Having bet on Romo once and lived to talk about it, I feel like I'm asking lightning to strike twice.  Of course, the Vikings are capable of finding ways to lose that I can't even imagine so I'm going to stay positive.

Winners Ticket

CIN; South Carolina, Missouri, New Orleans

Well the suspense ended quickly on this one.  As I mentioned above, the thought was Cincy should win.  I mean, Miami had been pretty creative in their recent losses so we had good reason to be optimistic.  The lesson, as always, is that it's called gambling for a reason.  Oh, and I should listen to what I write.  South Carolina might win out. Once their quarterback limped back onto the field and led a charge, they became a new team.  That was our thinking at least.  Missouri is still as good as ever, and we're not backing away. Can't win a game by (.5) so the Saints made a nice addition to this ticket.  Not good diversification, but with 6 NFL teams on a bye, plus the college byes, it was kinda like being in a shitty bar with bad lighting at last call. You knew nothing was great, but you could talk yourself into a few.  Unfortunately, Cincy turned on the lights early enough to ruin the night, but not before we took them home.  Ugh.

We stayed away from KC because they've looked get-able over the last couple of weeks, and Buffalo has shown up at home.  We'll regret not taking the Raiders at home.

Even with the Winners Ticket dying on the first leg, we can still net a positive return on the weekend, assuming lightning strikes twice, and we're as smart as you think we are.

Boom!!! Goes The Dynamite

First things first.  San Diego has the worst airport in America to be delayed at.  There is only one "restaurant" in the Southwest terminal (that's Terminal 1 for the uninitiated), and it's a dump.  But it did have the final game of this weekend on display and cold beer so things could have been worse.  When I finally boarded my plane, Seattle was covering (-4.5) and I came very close to learning all about Sky Law as they clung to a 14-9 lead during our descent and I was reluctant to power down my portable device.  We all know it's a scam.  

Important Thing We Learned - Seattle will play to its competition and is terrifying to gamble on.  We kinda knew this, but the Arizona game made us temporarily forget.  

Other Stuff We Learned - Aside from San Diego being a terrible airport, we learned that Chiefs might be showing signs of being vulnerable.  Cincinnati, Miami, New York Jets, Philadelphia, Dallas, NYG and New England are super unpredictable.  Detroit is percolating up.  Minnesota might be the best terrible team in the league.  The Raiders continue to be a home pick.  We still don't trust that Green Bay is any good.  San Francisco has gotten its swagger back.  Jacksonville is a terrible, horrible, very bad, no good football team.  Denver will beat bad teams badly.  Washington is one of those teams.  New Orleans might be real deal, but I'm not sure I'll take them on the road at Carolina.  Pittsburgh = Meh.  

So with a perfect weekend - 3 for 3 on teases, we have made up for last weekend's debacle and are looking at the following games:

College Games We Really Like:

Miami at Florida State (-22).  Yes, please!  Miami might be the worst undefeated team left in college, and Florida State might be best.  42-0 in just over 26 minutes of work, and it wasn't even that close.  I doubt Jimbo will rest the starters in the second half with the entire nation watching.

Tennessee at Missouri (-12.5).  We are not down on Missouri despite their loss.  South Carolina's QB dressed as bald, white, Willis Reed and rallied them back against a team playing a prevent defense.  By that time, it was too late for Missouri to get hot again.  Also, as we previously discussed, this happened.

Ohio State (-30.5) at Purdue.  Make no mistake, Urban Meyer is every bit as ruthless as Nick Saban.  He knows that unless he runs the table, puts up insane numbers and gets some help, OSU has no shot at the BCS title game.  I expect them to roll the train drivers.

Michigan at Michigan State (-4.5).  Instate rivalry game, blah, blah, blah.  Over the last few weeks, Michigan has looked pedestrian at best.  Meanwhile, MSU has gone from a defensive team that suffered its offense to a complete team that OSU is not looking forward to meeting in the Big 10-12 championship.  

Other Games That Look Really Good But We Might Not Have The Stones To Bet Them:

OKST (+2.5) at TX Tech.  The "I'm a man, I'm 40's" could easily take this against The Notebooks.

Minn (+10) at Indiana.  Ever since the Gopher's coach stepped away to address his health issues, they've won.  Indiana, which we liked early in the season is looking suspect.  

Early NFL Games:

Teasing BUF up at home against KC.  This might be the weekend KC turns into a pumpkin.

PIT (+7) at NE.  I don't trust the Pats, and PIT might just pound Le'Veon Bell for 30 carriers into that decimated defense.  I already hate this game, and we're staying away.

Pilly at OAK (+3).  We like the Raiders at home with a Halloween crowd.

Colts (-2.5) at HOU.  This is based on nothing but a day of travel and a couple of bourbons, but Reggie Wayne's injury might be final piece to Luck completing the transformation into THE FRANCHISE and going on a tear.  Does anyone else remember the debate about who's better - Luck or RGIII?  And who'd have thought Dan Snyder would have picked incorreclty?  Well, other than this guy.

Has there been a 6-2 team that you trust less than Cincy?  Oh, that's right.  The Pats.