Real Geniuses

We're using the laser focus only possible using synthesized excited bromide in an argon matrix to pull out of our funk.   Acknowledging that we have talked ourselves out of a lot of winners for reasons that do not make much sense, we are sticking to the basics, and trusting what our eyes tell us.  With that in mind, we took Indy at Ten.  The logic was Luck would lead his team to a convincing win against a banged up division rival.  He did, and covered.  Unfortunately, he covered with too much time on the clock, and his horrible coaching staff inserted the prevent D that allowed for the only monocle wearing quarterback in the NFL to get a late touchdown that resulted in a push.  While this was disappointing, given how poorly we've done over the last couple of weeks, a push is progress.  (Ugh.  We've been lowered to the expectations of the government.)  Also, these book makers are ridiculously good.  Seeing the flow of that game, and how it ended at a 3 points spread, it is nothing short of magic.

So, what's up for the weekend?

With the college season entering its final stretch and the NFL's second half under way, we are left with trust that teams will continue to be who we think they are.  This means taking huge lines for Florida State and Alabama.  It also means that we have to trust that Vegas hates Michigan State for reasons we don't quite understand.

We are taking a tease with South Carolina (-7), Alabama (-17.5) and Michigan State (+.5)  We are also taking FSU-East on a straight ticket to cover (-37.5).

At the NFL level, we are looking at NYG (-4.5) at home over the Packers' third string quarterback without Randall Cobb.  We also like Detroit (-3) at Pittsburgh.  Depending how we do on the college games, we'll decide how to move allocate bets on the NFL games.  Also in play is San Diego at Miami.

I know, I know.  I just wrote about staying away, but it's hard to not bet against a team that is now without one side of its already shaky offense line.  You should also know I'm that guy who keeps eating because things taste good even though I am full. I do not possess many healthy habits, as surprising as that may seem for someone who writes a blog about gambling to raise money for golf.  Get your popcorn ready, it's time for another weekend of excitement

Whoever Smelt It, Dealt It

Whoa, it's smelly in here!!! (looking around for dog to blame....)

So we've run into two straight weeks of losing tickets.  This is particularly disappointing because we've picked winners, but have also included a loser each time.  I guess it's true what they say about one bad apple spoiling the bunch.  In our defense, I don't think many people saw the Colts digging a 28-0 hole to the Rams. The Panthers win was not as shocking, which is why we kept SF off the winner's ticket.  On the college side, we whiffed on Oregon and LSU.  Baylor and Missouri are holding serve nicely.

Important Thing We Learned:

Alabama is for real.  Granted LSU had some bad fumbles and bad coaching (take the points Les!!!!), but a lot of that was due to the dominance of Alabama. Also, the FSUs are both getting it done.  FSU-East is ridiculous. (Ed. Note: as of the writing of this, reports have just surfaced that J. Winston might have been overly handsy and/or genitally with the ladies.)  FSU-West is taking care of business.

Other Stuff We Learned:

Vandy might be legit.  Going on the road at Florida (even a banged up FLA) and winning is big.  Auburn likely is legit.  We like them this weekend.  Baylor is the Oregon of the Midwest, and luckily for them there is no Stanford in the Big-12-2.  Michigan State is our favorite to win the Big 10+2.

The NFL is getting tougher to gamble on, but a few thing look good for a while.  Betting against the Packers as long as Rodgers is out.  This includes the NYG, whose schedule is set for yet another a late season rally to win the NFC East (currently at +500).  Carolina is good, or at least good enough.  Stay away from all teams in Florida - they cannot decide if they are awful, bad, or okay.  Unbelievably, the Browns at 11-2 to win the AFC North is not an awful bet.  (Ed. Note: I'm as stunned as you are.)

So, here's what we're looking at this week:

Buffalo at Toledo.  Ugh.  We decided to keep riding the Buffaloes.  This was a bad idea.

As much as we should be gun shy of the Colts, the Titans without Locker are gettable, and the Colts are a team that should rally from getting smoked in a positive way.  South Carolina should roll on Florida and its third string QB.  Unless he's in cuffs, FSU-East should cover 39 (39!!!!) at home over Syracuse.  Auburn at home also looks good against Georgia.  We also like Michigan State at Nebraska.

The remainder of the NFL slate looks rough.  The only standouts are NYG hosting the Packers, and the Eagles at home over the Redskins.  A game that should be a blowout but might be an upset is MIN at SEA. Aren't the Vikings similar to the Buccaneers but with slightly better players at every position? We would probably take Carolina over the Patriots if New England wasn't coming off a bye.

Revenge Of The Nerds

We were thiiiiiiiiiis close to nailing a Thursday Night Super Ticket of MIN, BAY and ORE.  Unfortunately, it turns out the the football players at Stanford are not only big, strong,  and pretty quick, but they might also be kinda smart.  Smart enough to knock off Oregon for the second year in a row.  I believe Clay Davis, lion of the Maryland State legislature, said it best - Sheeeeeiiiiiiiiit.  Anyways, on the bright side we took our medicine early and have a weekend full of clean tickets ahead of us.

We also are patronizing Bill Hill enough that we got a $10 thank you credit, which we promptly rolled into a bet that paid out $19.  I guess the old commercials were right, membership DOES have its privileges.  Anyways, that was a nice way to get back some of our Thursday losses.

So what looks good for the weekend?  There is some debate to be had but we are set on the following:

College Teaser

Missouri (-7.5) at Kentucky.
Minnesota (+4.5) hosting Penn State
LSU (+19) at Bama.

Missouri has shown no reason to back off them and we won't until further notice.  Minnesota has turned a corner since it's coach's health issues have been resolved, and Penn State has been uneven this year.  Speaking of uneven, LSU is the picture of uneven.  They are also the picture of a team that played Bama tougher than anyone not named Johnny Football, and beaten them more.  Ignoring history in the Stanford game came back to haunt us.  We won't do it twice.

Upset Special Ticket

We are taking the following dogs on the money line:

PHI (+105) at GB.
BUF (+135) at PIT
HOU (+125) at ARI
DAL (+230) at NO

First the low hanging fruit - Green Bay is in trouble with Seneca Wallace - he was cut by the Browns. Moving on, we have been touting the Bills and not seeing anything of note from the Steelers.  Plus, EJ Manuel is allegedly returning, so that is comforting.  Same with the Texans and Case Keenum.  This looks like a good team - the offense is fun and the defense seems rejuvenated.  Yes, they are on the road, but Carson Palmer throws lots of bad interceptions and takes sacks.  That is not a good combo against a Texans team that might be excited.  We are also assuming no more of their coaches will suffer mid-game strokes. Fans and bettors, maybe.  Finally, we're in on the Romocoaster again. This is not easy.

On a sadder note, in our initial emails about this ticket I did consider adding MIN.  That didn't happen.

The Winner's Ticket is shaping up to include the following:

Missouri, Johnny Football, San Francisco, UNC, Fresno State, Seattle, or Indy.

The NFL Teaser has the following candidates:

SF, NYG, DEN, HOU, BUF, MIA, SEA, DET.

We'll have to kick around some configuration since we've been burned recently with doubling up teams and losing multiple tickets.  I'm also nervous about DEN without John Fox.  Cam Newton might be good again, and the Seahawks are hell bent on being the 2010 SF Giants of football.

Games We Like But Don't Have The Stones To Bet

Vandy (+310) at FLA
NEB (+189) at Michigan - Seriously?
LSU (+345) at Bama.  Covered above.  We could wake up on Sunday where Jameis Winston sits in his rightful place on top of College Football.

The MAC Is Playing With My Emotions

So the MAC, home to one of our adopted favorite teams - Buffalo, has decided to put some of its "high profile games" on weekdays other than Thursday to get more viewers.  I can appreciate the desire for more viewers, but sneaking games in on a Tuesday??  When I can't bet on them??  That is playing with my emotions!  Well, it wouldn't be, except Scott is still in Not-Nevada, so we cannot place bets, which we totally would on Buffalo (-4.5) hosting Ohio.  

It also means that our college tease and winner's ticket will be without a favorite.  Hopefully, this will not make me sad come next Monday.

O Brother, Where Art Thou?

We lost the Ryan Belly Bowl by taking the Ryan that still has his belly and got smoked on our NFL Teaser ticket.  Thanks to a blocked PAT and the RomoCoaster doing his thing, we crawled away from the Dallas game with a push.  That left the Saints, who have looked really good against the Jets, who have looked really bad or really lucky.  Yesterday, they displayed their new look - not shabby, while New Orleans has us thinking of laying odds on Carolina to win the NFC South (currently +300).

While other important people might have fudged about your insurance, we are keep true to our platform. The plan is simple - College Tease; NFL Tease; Winner's ticket.  Don't chase losses.  Don't try and leverage wins.  The net effect?  You have read all of the blog to know what's in it.  Which is a good thing, because we would have probably taken Green Bay.  So, because we are disciplined, we avoided making our small loss a bigger one.

Important Thing(s) We Learned This Week - Houston is going to be fun for the rest of the season.  A healthy New England might still be good.  The Giants might be alive.

Other Things We Learned This Week - Betting against Atlanta is a pretty good bet.  Carolina might also be good, but we're not sure how good.  KC's defense will take out bad teams.  KC's offense is tough to watch. Dallas is not a good team to gamble on.  Minnesota is not as bad as their record.  We have no idea what to make of Philly, or Oakland for that matter.  Pittsburgh continues to be "Meh?"  We're betting against Green Bay as long as Seneca Wallace lines up under center.

Putting aside the NFL, our college horses continue to look good.  FSU (east) continued to look like the best team in college.  FSU (west) held serve, but we're probably done betting on them.  Mizzou is what we thought they were, and so is South Carolina.  Michigan State is continuing to look great heading into the Big 10+2 championship game.  Oklahoma State is also looking very good.

So what looks good early?  The Vikings (+2.5) at home against the Redskins.  (yeah, you read that right media, REDSKINS!)   Not because the Skins are that bad, but I think Minnesota is just better. Oregon at Stanford (-10).  I'd still be in at (-40).  Minnesota (-2.5) hosting Penn State. Auburn (-7) at Tennessee. Speaking of Tennessee, we like the Titans at Jacksonville (-13.5).  We also like the Giants (-7) hosting the Raiders.  San Francisco (-6.5) hosting the Panthers.  FYI - SF has won its last 5 games by an average margin of 22.5.  Good luck picking Miami (-3) at Tampa Bay.  Both locker rooms appear to be a shit-show, but Miami is at least a winning locker room that doesn't hate its coach.  Seriously, Florida.  What's your deal?

We are just staying away from Seattle, Denver (because of San Diego and the J. Fox issues), and Houston - we like the Keenum era, but are not stoked about the coach passing out on the side line era.  We are taking our advise on the Bengals.  We are also staying away from FSU (east) only because of the (-35) line.  Big win this weekend, and no question they should dominate Wake Forrest, but we could also see a 21 point win.

Safety Dance? Safety Dance.

Talk about a trick or treat...We went from covering the first leg to two bets with 27 seconds to go, to overtime with a chance.  We ended with a loss by a safety.  A FUCKING SAFETY in overtime.  Andy Dalton is a cold-ass-ginger heart breaker.  We've been beaten lots of ways, but this is a first.  I have never been a quarterback, but I have imagined myself as one on many runs, workouts, and flag football sidelines, and based on that experience, I know I would have the field awareness to not take a safety in overtime.  This is also why I should pay more attention to things I write such as:

"Has there been a 6-2 team that you trust less than Cincy?"

But then I "researched" them and decided they were a good pick for the weekend.  Ugh.  At some point, I'll know what you know - that we're really smart.  Until then, we'll keep getting in our own way.

On to the week's tickets:

College Teaser

Ohio State (-25) at Purdue; Florida State (-15.5) hosting Miami; and Fresno State (-14) hosting Nevada

We've been high on Florida State all season and, aside from the first half against Boston College, they have not disappointed.  Miami has been suspect (a kind assessment) this season.  Florida State also knows that Oregon jumped them in the BCS standings, so laying the wood on a top-10 opponent matters. For the same reason, Ohio State knows it has to hang as many points on Purdue as it can.  Not only does it have to win out, it needs help.  If Urban Meyer is ruthless enough to give Penn State its worst beat down in more than 100 years, I doubt he'll be concerned about putting 70 on some nerds from Indiana.  Finally, there is Fresno State.  They are undefeated and have shot to get stomped by a big program in a BCS game. Nevada is allegedly horrible, so we're taking Fresno since half of the NCAA is on a bye this week.

NFL Teaser

CIN (3.5) at MIA; NO (.5) at NJY and DAL(-4) hosting MIN

The thought was Cincy would at least win the game at Miami.  That did not happen, but at least they covered the first leg of this parlay.  New Orleans is back to almost full strength and the Jets are what they are.  As much as the New England win should deter us, the Pats are not good, and the Saints should roll in this game. It is also a Ryan bowl of sorts, and we're taking Sean Payton to win that.  Finally there is Dallas, who is as talented as any team in the league against Minnesota who is not.  Having bet on Romo once and lived to talk about it, I feel like I'm asking lightning to strike twice.  Of course, the Vikings are capable of finding ways to lose that I can't even imagine so I'm going to stay positive.

Winners Ticket

CIN; South Carolina, Missouri, New Orleans

Well the suspense ended quickly on this one.  As I mentioned above, the thought was Cincy should win.  I mean, Miami had been pretty creative in their recent losses so we had good reason to be optimistic.  The lesson, as always, is that it's called gambling for a reason.  Oh, and I should listen to what I write.  South Carolina might win out. Once their quarterback limped back onto the field and led a charge, they became a new team.  That was our thinking at least.  Missouri is still as good as ever, and we're not backing away. Can't win a game by (.5) so the Saints made a nice addition to this ticket.  Not good diversification, but with 6 NFL teams on a bye, plus the college byes, it was kinda like being in a shitty bar with bad lighting at last call. You knew nothing was great, but you could talk yourself into a few.  Unfortunately, Cincy turned on the lights early enough to ruin the night, but not before we took them home.  Ugh.

We stayed away from KC because they've looked get-able over the last couple of weeks, and Buffalo has shown up at home.  We'll regret not taking the Raiders at home.

Even with the Winners Ticket dying on the first leg, we can still net a positive return on the weekend, assuming lightning strikes twice, and we're as smart as you think we are.

Boom!!! Goes The Dynamite

First things first.  San Diego has the worst airport in America to be delayed at.  There is only one "restaurant" in the Southwest terminal (that's Terminal 1 for the uninitiated), and it's a dump.  But it did have the final game of this weekend on display and cold beer so things could have been worse.  When I finally boarded my plane, Seattle was covering (-4.5) and I came very close to learning all about Sky Law as they clung to a 14-9 lead during our descent and I was reluctant to power down my portable device.  We all know it's a scam.  

Important Thing We Learned - Seattle will play to its competition and is terrifying to gamble on.  We kinda knew this, but the Arizona game made us temporarily forget.  

Other Stuff We Learned - Aside from San Diego being a terrible airport, we learned that Chiefs might be showing signs of being vulnerable.  Cincinnati, Miami, New York Jets, Philadelphia, Dallas, NYG and New England are super unpredictable.  Detroit is percolating up.  Minnesota might be the best terrible team in the league.  The Raiders continue to be a home pick.  We still don't trust that Green Bay is any good.  San Francisco has gotten its swagger back.  Jacksonville is a terrible, horrible, very bad, no good football team.  Denver will beat bad teams badly.  Washington is one of those teams.  New Orleans might be real deal, but I'm not sure I'll take them on the road at Carolina.  Pittsburgh = Meh.  

So with a perfect weekend - 3 for 3 on teases, we have made up for last weekend's debacle and are looking at the following games:

College Games We Really Like:

Miami at Florida State (-22).  Yes, please!  Miami might be the worst undefeated team left in college, and Florida State might be best.  42-0 in just over 26 minutes of work, and it wasn't even that close.  I doubt Jimbo will rest the starters in the second half with the entire nation watching.

Tennessee at Missouri (-12.5).  We are not down on Missouri despite their loss.  South Carolina's QB dressed as bald, white, Willis Reed and rallied them back against a team playing a prevent defense.  By that time, it was too late for Missouri to get hot again.  Also, as we previously discussed, this happened.

Ohio State (-30.5) at Purdue.  Make no mistake, Urban Meyer is every bit as ruthless as Nick Saban.  He knows that unless he runs the table, puts up insane numbers and gets some help, OSU has no shot at the BCS title game.  I expect them to roll the train drivers.

Michigan at Michigan State (-4.5).  Instate rivalry game, blah, blah, blah.  Over the last few weeks, Michigan has looked pedestrian at best.  Meanwhile, MSU has gone from a defensive team that suffered its offense to a complete team that OSU is not looking forward to meeting in the Big 10-12 championship.  

Other Games That Look Really Good But We Might Not Have The Stones To Bet Them:

OKST (+2.5) at TX Tech.  The "I'm a man, I'm 40's" could easily take this against The Notebooks.

Minn (+10) at Indiana.  Ever since the Gopher's coach stepped away to address his health issues, they've won.  Indiana, which we liked early in the season is looking suspect.  

Early NFL Games:

Teasing BUF up at home against KC.  This might be the weekend KC turns into a pumpkin.

PIT (+7) at NE.  I don't trust the Pats, and PIT might just pound Le'Veon Bell for 30 carriers into that decimated defense.  I already hate this game, and we're staying away.

Pilly at OAK (+3).  We like the Raiders at home with a Halloween crowd.

Colts (-2.5) at HOU.  This is based on nothing but a day of travel and a couple of bourbons, but Reggie Wayne's injury might be final piece to Luck completing the transformation into THE FRANCHISE and going on a tear.  Does anyone else remember the debate about who's better - Luck or RGIII?  And who'd have thought Dan Snyder would have picked incorreclty?  Well, other than this guy.

Has there been a 6-2 team that you trust less than Cincy?  Oh, that's right.  The Pats.

Just Be Cool

Phew.  We've had a great Saturday!  Two college teases, two wins.  We've also seen proof that Stanford is faking injuries, which is great for gambling purposes going forward.

The first tease - BUF (+4), MIZZOU (+3.5), ORST (+11) .

First of all, let's give credit where credit is due.  Scott pulled himself from the dregs of a Nevada Day bender to miss placing the bets for the early games.  This meant no Winners' Ticket this weekend, and instead a second tease.

Oh, wait.  I got side tracked.  I meant to give credit to Yami via Nick who told me about Buffalo.  We've bet them two weeks in a row and have not been disappointed.  I lived in Buffalo, and based on experience, could not foresee a viable college football team emerging from the region.  Large people? Skinny girls who are guilty they didn't love wings and Labatt's?  All possible.  Good college football?  NO WAY.  Until now.  Let's go [whatever UB's mascot is]!  Even though Missouri lost the game on a laces out (EINHORN!!!) missed FG, they were in total control of that game.  We're will not turn our back on them, and are hopeful that Vegas will.  Mizzou is legit.  Finally, Oregon State could have tied, and maybe won that game.  Loved the bold first half play calling by OSU, and hated the fake injury by Murphy for Stanford at the end of the game.  Regardless, we hit this ticket thanks to the hook on the Mizzou game.

The second tease - FSU (-27.5), ORE (-17), CLEM(-10)

We've been very high on FSU all season, and they did not disappoint - in the first half.  Then, they sat their starters and NC State began a back door cover for the ages.  Thankfully, FSU's second string is pretty good, and we sneaked out out that game.  FSU will be bet regardless of points laid to Miami.  Oregon is ruthless.  A thoughtless, remorseless machine that only knows how to score.  They entered the 3rd quarter tied, and dropped an unquestioned 28 points in the second half to cover.  Relevant to nothing, but can you imagine a back field with Mariota and Johnny Football?  Oregon chose right.  Having watched the OSU/Stan game, we'll take ORE and the points on November 7.  And then there was Clemson.  They are not bad, but not awesome.  They beat Maryland only because their athletes were better, but it was not settled until the middle of the third quarter.  We're probably done with Clemson, so I don't really care.  (Since I've never been to Nevada Day festivities, I can only guess how awesome they are.  I'm thankful they are so awesome, because this ticket doesn't exist without that awesomeness.)

We covered the bet for the weekend.  So that's nice.  The NFL ticket is 1/3 of the way home.  We have some extra $$$ to bet since we missed placing the winner's ticket.  Given the results today, we'll probably let that ride until next weekend.  The NFL's six team bye weeks are not conducive to gambling.

Maybe It's A Tumor. It's Not A Toomah

In looking for reasons how our weekend could have gone so wrong I came across an article about this week's internet "It Kids" -- Rap Genius. Their mouth piece, Mahbod Maghadam, recently credited his "behavior" to a brain tumor.  I thought this must be the reason we did such a bad job picking games and making me stand up Dorothy and miss my seafood dinner.  But no, I do not think I have a tumor. (I did spend most of Thursday convinced I might have appendicitis.)  The silver lining? Not dying! (Also, I think we're clear on the appendicitis.) The bad news? We lost half our capital and Bandon just got further away.  And, now you are probably thinking about looking elsewhere for investment advice.  But don't.  I know why this week fell apart, and it's happened before - Scott angered the universe.  How so, you ask?  This is how: (Ed. note - I am not good with my thumbs)

We had Auburn teased to +20!  This was as in the bag as it gets, and Scott had to wish ill-will on Johnny Football.  Once the Universe heard this, what happened next is well documented - LSU went in the can, Miami fumbled its game away, and Pey-Pey proved that you cannot go home.  So here we are looking at another week's games. 

Important Thing We Learned - Missouri is for real. We've thought it, and have ridden them, but stayed away due to injury.  Also, Buffalo is who we thought they were - a frisky team that should cover against bad teams.  Not sure how we feel about them when it comes to good teams, but we're about to find out when they go to New Orleans.  

Average Stuff We Learned - The 49ers might have it figured out.  The Seahawks have it figured out. Houston is better with Case Keenum.  San Diego will be interesting.  Andy Reid is a gentleman and will not punch in a meaningless touchdown in garbage time to cover.  Auburn might be coming on.  

NFL Teaser

Carolina (-.5), KC (-1), SEA (-4.5)

Carolina played at Tampa Bay and easily covered.  If you Google "Tampa Bay Buccaneers" it shows you a picture of train wreck, which is odd because a shipwreck would more appropriate. That leaves KC, at home over the Browns.  The Browns are now starting their third quarterback of the season.  Granted it is someone with NFL experience, but most of that experience is being benched for doughy, talentless quarterbacks.  Not sure how it will end, but I like KC to win.  Finally, Seattle is now officially rolling, and playing at St. Louis, who just called Brett Favre.  That is not a vote of confidence for Kellen Clemmons.

We're one third of the way home on this, and feel pretty good, so long as Scott doesn't offend the Universe any more.

Also, a ticket I'd bet if we hadn't lost half our money last week - Oregon State and Oakland to both win outright this weekend.

It's Quite Pungent, Has A Formidable Scent, And Really Stings The Nostrils - In A Good Way.

No, it's not Sex Panther (now with 40% more real panther!) It's desperation, and unlike great cologne, it rarely works 60% of the time, every time.

Saturday was not a good day.  No, I did not have to use my AK, and I definitely did not mess around and get a triple-double. Instead, LSU decided that since all the other ranked schools in the SEC not named Alabama were losing, they would join in the fun.  The effect of this poor judgment is that our College Teaser died, and more importantly, took our Winners Ticket with it.  Now we are left looking for what to do with NFL games tomorrow.

Before we get to that, let's see what happened in college.  First, Missouri continues to be a safe pick.  We had been riding them for weeks and sat back after they lost their QB.  No worries.  They rolled Florida, and we're back on the Tiger's wagon.  Second, FSU is the real deal.  They went on the road and housed Clemson. It wasn't even close.  They should finish the year with a clean slate.  Third, Auburn is worth paying attention to.  Even before the injury to Johnny Football, they were handling that game very well.  They are clearly paying the right kids again. (Hi, Cam!)  Other than a trip to Tennessee in a few weeks, they should win out until their final game when they host Alabama.  Take the points.  Fourth, Maryland is off the board.  We were willing to ignore their beat down by FSU, but seeing the mess against Wake Forest, they can't be trusted. Fifth, I know it seems to fishy to highlight a small school, but Buffalo is the real deal.  Finally, it looks like Alabama will cover any spread simply because they won't let the other team score.  I haven't watched any games besides their trip to Johnny Football, but I have to assume that Saban is such a prick, his is just refusing to let the other teams use a football on offense.  Hopefully, Auburn has enough $$$ in its player development budget to buy some balls and have a little left over for the refs.

On to the NFL ticket.  We already have KC on a straight ticket.  But we've lost 65% of the week's investments, so we need tomorrow's ticket to win, and win big.  Now that we've said it, we know it won't, but that won't stop us from lighting our money on fire.  Gambling is fun.

We are going to tweak the ticket this week, because we had excluded KC and SD from our original draft of the NFL tease since they were already on the Winners Ticket.  (Ideally, we try to diversify our picks.  See, LSU above.)  Since that is dead, we're ignoring the advise of an old guy from Maine who lived near a pet cemetery and said that what's dead should stay dead.  I don't recall all the details from his movie, but I'm pretty sure it all worked out in the end.  With that in mind, we're taking KC, SD, DEN, CLE, and MIA.

Ideally, this will allow us to break even on the weekend.

We'v talked about KC and SD before.  After seeing how Indy performed at SD, the Denver Mannings look like the perfect kind of team that will do well against that defense.  Oh, and Von Miller is back with fresh legs, so the Denver D will be that much better. If Trent Richardson hasn't figured out his blitz assignment yet, it's not going to be a good day for Andrew Luck.  Did I mention the part where Indy's owner called out Pey-Pey for not winning more while in Indy?  Yeah, while I wanted nothing to do with this at the beginning of the week, now it just feels right.  Miami is coming off a bye, at home, and has been interesting this season. They've also laid eggs. I like the Bills at home, not so much on the road and we may need to prepare ourselves for an NFL where the best linebacker is named Kiko. If Thad Lewis' isn't 100%, we're only one play away for Jeff Tuel and a cover!  (Book club topic - how sad is it that Matt Leinert was worse that Tuel this year in Bills' camp?)  Finally, Cleveland at Green Bay is enticing because of GB's injuries more than Cleveland's anything. The Browns are an amazingly milquetoast offense with a stellar defense.  If Weeden can avoid turnovers, this should stay close. That sentence is not much different than me saying, "If Kate Upton calls me, I'm totally calling back." Neither will happen.

With that in mind, we are going to a 4 team teaser.  CLE is off the ticket.  Weeden just cannot be trusted. Also, I can't tell if Green Bay is snake bitten or not this year.  The injuries tell me yes, but I still don't believe it.

We're currently sitting at 0 for the weekend.  But if our luck changes, I'm going to take Dorothy Mantooth out for a nice seafood dinner and never call her back.

Rally Bourbon. It's A Thing.

So we're locked and loaded (and headed that way) for this week.  Miami lived up to its namesake and was a hurricane with our emotions tonight.  A fierce 4th quarter rally saved the night, and two of our tickets this weekend.  That's important because last weekend did not go awesome, and there is nothing worse than losing the first leg of a parlay only to know the rest of the games are meaningless.  More on this in a bit.

So to recap last week, we got out with minor scrapes and bruises.  Our Winner's Ticket saved the weekend since our three teaser parlays went up in smoke and the lottery ticket went 1-4.  Unfortunately, that means 0-1.  Really surprised by Andrew Luck and the Colts not finding the end zone in San Diego, but as happens in all failures, we learned a few things.

Important Fact We Learned - San Diego is now on the list of teams we like.  Granted Indy didn't look good, but having watched most of that game, San Diego was responsible for most of that bad look.  We never worried about the SD Offense, but suddenly their D came along.  For this week, at least, they will be featured prominently.

Other Stuff We Learned - The Colts might not be as awesome as we thought.  Trent Richardson is still learning the system, but does not look like a game breaking back.  This is bad because Indy's receivers are suspect.  Reggie Wayne is solid as always, but DHB is what he's always been - road runner with frying pan hands.  T.Y. Hilton is an odd name, and sounds like he'd be better running a bank than running routes.  This is not a compliment.  The defense is not awesome but not horrible.  It will be suspect to a team with multiple receiving threats and an average running game.  (I'm looking at you Peyton!)

We also learned that we are staying away from home dogs at night between 3 and 6 points.

So what's on tap this week?  Well, Miami is on tap, and thankfully tapped out.  That game was exhausting. They are on two tickets - the College Teaser and the Winner's Ticket.  The logic of adding them was they needed to come out and crush UNC in a national game, especially when FSU and Clemson are playing each other this weekend.  Well, they ultimately handled business, but not before inducing Scott and I to pour Rally Bourbons.  The result? 14 unanswered 4th quarter points.  So, yeah, now there is scientific evidence that Rally Bourbon is a thing, and it works.  Use as needed. (Effect is likely doubled for SEC schools.)

The College Teaser

Miami (-2.5), LSU (-3), and Auburn (20.5).  Ole Miss played their ass off against Johnny Football, and lost. It's tough to come back from that.  And, LSU's defense is WAY better than Johnny Football's, and their offense is not much worse.  We don't expect a blow out, but I'm hoping my Rally Bourbon can be saved and converted to Victory Bourbon.  LSU is also the reason we teased up Auburn.  They went into the Swamp and lost by 14.  They also scored 21.  We are betting on the hope that LSU's defense is better than A&M, and Auburn's offense is better than Ole Miss, which is based on Auburn's already beating them.  We're one leg down and are living to talk about it.

The Winner's Ticket

Miami (-380); Ok. State (-320); LSU (-400); Or State (-420); KC (-260); SD (-370)

Miami is good.  Oklahoma State is at home, hosting TCU.  It's hardly a lock, but OkState is motivated after the WVU loss.  They know they have to win out, especially now that Oklahoma dropped a game.  That's the logic at least and I'm sure a bunch of 19 year old kids see it the same way.  We're doubling up on LSU for the reasons above.  Oregon State has been quietly handling its business late on Saturday nights while you've been sleeping.  Cal is not rolling over and will be interesting in a year or two once Sonny recruits a few classes of guys for his system.  For now, we can bet against them for the win.  KC is hosting HOU, which is making headlines for all the wrong reasons.  Oh, and they are starting their 3rd string QB who has not seen a defense or crowd like KC will throw at him.  Finally, San Diego, like all good hookers, won our hearts and stole our wallets at the same time. With that in mind, know this will end badly.  I also think JAX got up for the Denver game and might be down this week.  That's a six leg parlay, four of which rely on kids.  Ugh. One down, five to go.

Straight Ticket

For all the reasons above, we've taken KC (-6) on straight ticket.  I feel like that should be bigger, but for reasons that I don't get, and contrary to Chris Rock's eponymous show, everyone really hates Alex.  We don't and we're riding him and the walrus he rode in on until further notice.

NFL Parlay will follow before Sunday.

Do You Feel Lucky, Punk?

So another weekend is in the books and another list of important things learned.  First, and foremost, when ever you see a ticket that pays +29,000 understand there is a reason for that return.  With the winter months coming, that money could be better spent heating your house.  Just light it on fire.  Second, we learned that betting on religious schools is a gamble because I don't think they really adhere to the adage "good coaches win, great coaches cover."  The Baptists running Baylor should be pleased with the wholesome team they are fielding, even if the rest of us are not.  Finally, the Jets just cannot be trusted.  I know, shame on us for diving in after a win at the woeful Falcons, but that was their worst game of the season.

As for the rest of the games and some average stuff learned, here goes:

1) Utah has a legit home field advantage.  I told everyone who would listen (not read) that Stanford would not cover, and could lose that game.  And, because I know people and am kind of a big deal in lesser known parts, I have this link to the halftime speech in the Ute's locker room. Of course, I didn't touch that game because I could not tell how much of that knowledge was based on spite or insight.  All you need to know is that Vegas cannot put enough points on the Oregon-Stanford game, and we (and you) should really, really, REALLY like Oregon.

2) Tennessee (easy Vols, I'm talking Titans) is for real.  They are taking a page out of the Ravens history and doing it all on defense, and they will not go away.  To go into Seattle and taunt the 'Hawks with a quarterback who may or may not wear a monocle and have a chance to win has got me convinced that I will continue to bet them. (I'm yet to meet a Haaaavard graduate I could bare, so I assume they all wear monocles and sip sherry like Fraiser and his brother. If you didn't get that reference, go to YouTube. While you are there, watch the brick in the washing machine - makes me laugh every time, which might explain why I don't hang with many people from Haaaavard.)

3) The 9ers might be getting their groove on.  Tough to tell if they were good or Arizona is that bad/unlucky. For now I am going with unlucky because the fumble to stop what could have been Zona's go ahead drive was by Larry Fitzgerald.  That happens once a season.  Both teams remain on the watch list.

4) Assuming their QB is not out for long (early reports are not encouraging) Missouri is for real.  We've been riding them all year and they did not disappoint Between The Hedges, but with the injury to Franklin, all bets are off.

5) Also for real - LSU.  Florida came in confident and left beaten.  More importantly, I will now ignore all the writers who convinced me Florida was for real, and will listen to people who know better, and live in Reno.

6) Still can't tell if the Cowboys are good.  The Redskins being horrible is understood, but I can't decide if they got up for tonight or the Cowboys are a team that will play to its competition.  I'm guessing the latter and am glad that I bet on Romo and lived to tell about it.

7) KC. KC. KC. KC. KC.  Until further notice, bet them in your car, at the bar, from afar, and with your friend Jabar.  For now, they are the truth.  

8) Don't give up on Oakland.  They've been interesting all season and will be worth paying attention to, unless they are playing at Denver.  (I will probably take them at home.  What?  Oh, of course with the points, but maybe a sneaky ML.  I would not be surprised if there is a cardboard cutout in the Raiders locker room of Mark Davis, a la Major League.)

9) We got out of Buffalo with a push, and my take away is not that the Bengals are bad (I think they are), but that the Bills could be okay.  As in "keep covering" okay, not "go and get the AFC East "okay.  The Bengals are on hiatus until further notice.

So, we've covered on the Winners ticket, barely missed one tease and ate shit on another.  We're still alive on the third, and hoping that Andrew Luck will deliver in San Diego.  Until then, let's hope that horseshoe on the Colts' helmets has just enough Luck.

So, You're Saying There's A Chance!

Well, Eli has confirmed that the Giants are awful this year.  Thinking of Eli trapped on this Giants team, I'm reminded of a line from the inexplicably oscar-snubbed film "Better Off Dead" - "That's a waste of a perfectly good white boy."  Next year, kid.  And, really, it's probably for the best since the sports media would have melted the internet with Manning v. Manning had Big Blue been good this year.  Of course, this doesn't change my opposition to betting on or against the Steaming Eli's, it just makes it much easier to ignore any game they are playing in for the rest of the year.  (Ed. Note - I may disregard this if Cowboys are at home and need just one win to clinch a playoff spot and Eli's in town.  He loves ruining Jerry World almost as much as he loves half-asleep faces.

As for the rest of the picks this week, after much debate, we've settled on our play.

1. The Winner's Ticket - Texas A&M, Boise State, Michigan State, Buffalo, Kansas City.

Texas A&M is the sketchy pick here because they seem just a little reckless and Ole Miss will want a signature SEC win.  The other picks look solid, although I can't say I'm in love with Michigan State.  For some reason every school in the Big Boring seems interchangeable, so who knows how this one turns out.

2. College Teaser Parlay - Baylor (-11); Florida (+13); Boise (Pick em)

Adding Boise is dangerous because a loss at Utah State will sink two tickets, but we like the match up, feel that Boise is back to being Boise, and Utah State is in tough shape having lost its QB.  That's the thinking at least.  Have I mentioned that three team teasers are idiotic?  We're about to find out.  Baylor is on pace to outscore Warren Buffet's bank account, and I just don't see a banged up Kansas State team getting within 14 of them.  The Florida pick is probably over-thinking things.  We had LSU on the first draft of the winners ticket, only to be talked out of it by lots of writers who are convinced that Florida's defense and new quarterback have the Gators ready to jump into the SEC championship.  I don't know about that, but I know they've done a lot of scoring lately and LSU's defense has let in a few points.  If I wrote anymore, I'd talk myself out of it again.

3. College Super-Mega-Ultra-Upset Hail Mary  - Washington (+450); Arkansas (+200); Northwestern (+370); Missouri (+280).

This is a $10 ticket to pay out roughly $2,900.  That alone is all you need to know - i.e. we might as well have lit $10 on fire.  This also looked much better when Days of our Jadeveon were playing out in Columbia. Now...?  The logic here is that every year, there is a crazy weekend where a ton of upsets happen and we liked these match ups.  UW is probably a reach, but I'm a homer.  (Yes, I'm fully prepared to hate myself if the other three hit and the Huskies get smoked by 30 at home.  This is why you should not bet on family.)

4. NFL Teaser #1 - New York Jets (+9); Kansas City (-2.5); Seattle (-7).

Covered earlier, but all three are at home and the Jets are now laying points.

5. NFL Teaser #2 - Cowboys (+1); Colts (+5); Cincy (-.5).

Let's start with the obvious.  This ticket has no chance because we have bet on Tony Romo.  Luckily, we are wagering considerably less than Jerry Jones has invested in him, so that's nice.  I'm just hoping that the Skins continue to be terrible at defense, RGIII remembers his concrete cleats, and the Cowboys confuse them for Denver.  We think the Chargers showed their true colors last week, and Andrew Luck is doing his awesomeness thing.  He will be ridden until further notice.  Fun fact about the Bengals - if he added black stripes in his hair, you would not be able to tell when Andy Dalton has his helmet on or off.  Oh, he might also be bad, but we have to believe that he's better than Thad Lewis.  Sure, those 10 wins he had in 4 years at Duke were something - something like 20% of his starts, the remainder of which were losses.

Having rationalized all the picks, I now have far less confidence than I did a few hours ago when we finalized them.  Ugh.  Have a good weekend!

2013 Quarter Pole

"Mortimer, we're back!"

And not just back, but back with a plan.  Unlike prior campaigns that did not have much focus and always ended with some foolish Monday night bet to try and cover a bad weekend, we've streamlined our logic, and stuck to a system that aggregates safe picks to generate favorable returns.  If I were in finance, I'd try to do the same with mortgages, since real estate never goes down, but for now we'll have to stick to football.

What is this super-system you ask?  It's this - every week, we identify 5 teams that we think are very likely to win.  Ideally, we grab a few between (-350 and -600) and a couple in the (-200) range.  The net effect is a parlay that generally yields (+250) without ever having to touch an underdog.  Of course this doesn't always work.  Sometimes, Lane Kiffin gets to coach teams. (Ed. note - we will never bet on or against a Kiffin team again.)  So far this season, this strategy has worked every weekend except 1.  (see note re: Kiffin.)

The next bet is a three team parlay.  I know, only an idiot would make that part of his regular gambling strategy, and normally you'd be right.  However, you are dealing with a pair of idiot-savants, and that is a huge difference.  It also helps that this year has yielded some historically bad (Hi, Blaine!) and good teams (Hey, Pey-Pey!), as well as a good-bad team that Vegas doesn't trust yet (I always believed in you Alex!) and bad-good team that Vegas hasn't given up on yet (Holla! Ben.)  Essentially, so far this formula has been simple - Tease down Denver, who ever is playing Jacksonville, and the better game between KC or Pittsburgh.  This is netting a solid return as well, except when you forget to notice that the Falcons secretly got horrible.

Like prior years, we are also picking straight against-the-spread tickets as well, but with much less regularity. We're riding hot teams, and most importantly, identifying truly bad teams.  (I still don't trust that you are horrible Eli.  I want to, but not yet.)

So that brings us to this week's games.  We're 6 weeks into college, and 5 weeks into the NFL, and here's what we've learned - Florida State is legit, Washington is good and Stanford can pay the refs more. (obligatory bitter homer comment)  We've also learned that KC is San Francisco from two years ago, Denver is the NFL version of Oregon, Jacksonville is the NFL version of terrible, which really translates at any level.  We now know that Sexy Rexy is not an awful coach, and might actually be good.  We're pretty sure that Seattle won't lose at home, and can't be trusted on the road.  With that in mind, here is an early three team teaser with NYJ (+9.5), SEA (-7) and KC (-2.5) all three are home, and since placing that bet, the Jets went from getting 3 to laying 1.5.  That's market research!

Early teams we like on the winner's ticket are LSU at home over Florida, Boise State over Utah State, Clemson against anyone not in a Seminole uniform, Nebraska against Purdue, Johnny Football and his 6'7" receivers at Ole Miss, Kansas City at home over a very frisky Oakland, and Dallas over the RG III's new concrete shoes.

We'll post the rest of the picks this week, when our tickets are placed.