2013 Quarter Pole

"Mortimer, we're back!"

And not just back, but back with a plan.  Unlike prior campaigns that did not have much focus and always ended with some foolish Monday night bet to try and cover a bad weekend, we've streamlined our logic, and stuck to a system that aggregates safe picks to generate favorable returns.  If I were in finance, I'd try to do the same with mortgages, since real estate never goes down, but for now we'll have to stick to football.

What is this super-system you ask?  It's this - every week, we identify 5 teams that we think are very likely to win.  Ideally, we grab a few between (-350 and -600) and a couple in the (-200) range.  The net effect is a parlay that generally yields (+250) without ever having to touch an underdog.  Of course this doesn't always work.  Sometimes, Lane Kiffin gets to coach teams. (Ed. note - we will never bet on or against a Kiffin team again.)  So far this season, this strategy has worked every weekend except 1.  (see note re: Kiffin.)

The next bet is a three team parlay.  I know, only an idiot would make that part of his regular gambling strategy, and normally you'd be right.  However, you are dealing with a pair of idiot-savants, and that is a huge difference.  It also helps that this year has yielded some historically bad (Hi, Blaine!) and good teams (Hey, Pey-Pey!), as well as a good-bad team that Vegas doesn't trust yet (I always believed in you Alex!) and bad-good team that Vegas hasn't given up on yet (Holla! Ben.)  Essentially, so far this formula has been simple - Tease down Denver, who ever is playing Jacksonville, and the better game between KC or Pittsburgh.  This is netting a solid return as well, except when you forget to notice that the Falcons secretly got horrible.

Like prior years, we are also picking straight against-the-spread tickets as well, but with much less regularity. We're riding hot teams, and most importantly, identifying truly bad teams.  (I still don't trust that you are horrible Eli.  I want to, but not yet.)

So that brings us to this week's games.  We're 6 weeks into college, and 5 weeks into the NFL, and here's what we've learned - Florida State is legit, Washington is good and Stanford can pay the refs more. (obligatory bitter homer comment)  We've also learned that KC is San Francisco from two years ago, Denver is the NFL version of Oregon, Jacksonville is the NFL version of terrible, which really translates at any level.  We now know that Sexy Rexy is not an awful coach, and might actually be good.  We're pretty sure that Seattle won't lose at home, and can't be trusted on the road.  With that in mind, here is an early three team teaser with NYJ (+9.5), SEA (-7) and KC (-2.5) all three are home, and since placing that bet, the Jets went from getting 3 to laying 1.5.  That's market research!

Early teams we like on the winner's ticket are LSU at home over Florida, Boise State over Utah State, Clemson against anyone not in a Seminole uniform, Nebraska against Purdue, Johnny Football and his 6'7" receivers at Ole Miss, Kansas City at home over a very frisky Oakland, and Dallas over the RG III's new concrete shoes.

We'll post the rest of the picks this week, when our tickets are placed.