Safety Dance? Safety Dance.

Talk about a trick or treat...We went from covering the first leg to two bets with 27 seconds to go, to overtime with a chance.  We ended with a loss by a safety.  A FUCKING SAFETY in overtime.  Andy Dalton is a cold-ass-ginger heart breaker.  We've been beaten lots of ways, but this is a first.  I have never been a quarterback, but I have imagined myself as one on many runs, workouts, and flag football sidelines, and based on that experience, I know I would have the field awareness to not take a safety in overtime.  This is also why I should pay more attention to things I write such as:

"Has there been a 6-2 team that you trust less than Cincy?"

But then I "researched" them and decided they were a good pick for the weekend.  Ugh.  At some point, I'll know what you know - that we're really smart.  Until then, we'll keep getting in our own way.

On to the week's tickets:

College Teaser

Ohio State (-25) at Purdue; Florida State (-15.5) hosting Miami; and Fresno State (-14) hosting Nevada

We've been high on Florida State all season and, aside from the first half against Boston College, they have not disappointed.  Miami has been suspect (a kind assessment) this season.  Florida State also knows that Oregon jumped them in the BCS standings, so laying the wood on a top-10 opponent matters. For the same reason, Ohio State knows it has to hang as many points on Purdue as it can.  Not only does it have to win out, it needs help.  If Urban Meyer is ruthless enough to give Penn State its worst beat down in more than 100 years, I doubt he'll be concerned about putting 70 on some nerds from Indiana.  Finally, there is Fresno State.  They are undefeated and have shot to get stomped by a big program in a BCS game. Nevada is allegedly horrible, so we're taking Fresno since half of the NCAA is on a bye this week.

NFL Teaser

CIN (3.5) at MIA; NO (.5) at NJY and DAL(-4) hosting MIN

The thought was Cincy would at least win the game at Miami.  That did not happen, but at least they covered the first leg of this parlay.  New Orleans is back to almost full strength and the Jets are what they are.  As much as the New England win should deter us, the Pats are not good, and the Saints should roll in this game. It is also a Ryan bowl of sorts, and we're taking Sean Payton to win that.  Finally there is Dallas, who is as talented as any team in the league against Minnesota who is not.  Having bet on Romo once and lived to talk about it, I feel like I'm asking lightning to strike twice.  Of course, the Vikings are capable of finding ways to lose that I can't even imagine so I'm going to stay positive.

Winners Ticket

CIN; South Carolina, Missouri, New Orleans

Well the suspense ended quickly on this one.  As I mentioned above, the thought was Cincy should win.  I mean, Miami had been pretty creative in their recent losses so we had good reason to be optimistic.  The lesson, as always, is that it's called gambling for a reason.  Oh, and I should listen to what I write.  South Carolina might win out. Once their quarterback limped back onto the field and led a charge, they became a new team.  That was our thinking at least.  Missouri is still as good as ever, and we're not backing away. Can't win a game by (.5) so the Saints made a nice addition to this ticket.  Not good diversification, but with 6 NFL teams on a bye, plus the college byes, it was kinda like being in a shitty bar with bad lighting at last call. You knew nothing was great, but you could talk yourself into a few.  Unfortunately, Cincy turned on the lights early enough to ruin the night, but not before we took them home.  Ugh.

We stayed away from KC because they've looked get-able over the last couple of weeks, and Buffalo has shown up at home.  We'll regret not taking the Raiders at home.

Even with the Winners Ticket dying on the first leg, we can still net a positive return on the weekend, assuming lightning strikes twice, and we're as smart as you think we are.